Market Memo: Quarterly Report - July 2026

The June report from the Canadian Real Estate Association has bolstered some hope that the long awaited revival in Canada’s housing market may be taking hold. 

Modest Improvements 

June home sales marked a small, but on-going, increase on a month-over-month basis, rising 0.5% compared to May.  That adds to a 5.5% jump in May and a 0.9% increase in April. 

Year-over-year sales were up 0.9% over June 2025. 

The national average home price edged up to $696,000, a 0.5% increase from a year earlier.  CREA’s preferred measure – it’s Composite Home Price Index – registered a 3.6% decline on a year-over-year basis.  However, the month-over-month reading was unchanged from May to June, halting 17 months of declines. 

Conditions Stabilizing 

New listings dipped slightly (-1.3%) from May to June bringing the sales-to-new listings ratio to 50.2%, solidly inside balanced territory. 

Given the June CREA numbers, along with the Bank of Canada’s current “hands-off” approach to interest rates and the forecasts for inflation, many analysts say the housing market is stabilizing and may be ready to return to more, historical, norms.  Many market watchers are hopeful that will increase buyer confidence and release some of the pent-up demand. 

Second Half Optimism 

CREA is looking forward to a more vigorous second half of 2026, but the market is still battling back from the slow start to the year leading the association to trim its latest Quarterly Forecast. 

Canada’s realtors now expect to see about 463,000 residential properties change hands this year, down 1.4% from 2025.  CREA points to the rapid decline in Canada’s population as a key factor which has affected “housing market activity more quickly than previously expected.” 

The national average home price is forecast to edge up by 1.1% to nearly $687,000 in 2026. 

Outlook for 2027 

For 2027 CREA is forecasting a sales increase of 3.7% to about 481,000 units.  It expects fairly even growth across the country, provided the current, level of economic stability is not disrupted. 

The national average home price is projected to climb 1.1% from 2026 to $694,000 in 2027. 

New Builds 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports the annualized rate of housing starts dropped 6.0% in June compared to May.  The seasonally adjusted rate of starts came in at just under 239,000 units in June. 

The six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate was 248,000 units for June, down 2.8% from May. 

- First National Financial LP