Residential Market Commentary - Hopeful July

The Canadian Real Estate Association is reporting a fourth consecutive month of gains in the resale housing market.  Sales ticked up 0.5% in July compared to June.  CREA sees it as a sign markets are moving back into balance.

“That’s true on the Prairies, in Quebec, and on the East Coast, where a majority of sellers’ markets have been steadily cooling off over the past year.  More recently, it’s also been true of the markets in B.C.’s Lower Mainland and Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe, where formerly buyers’ or borderline buyers’ markets have largely shifted back into balanced market territory,” says CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart.

Prices remain 5.3% below July of 2025.  CREA’s preferred measure of pricing – its Home Price Index (HPI) – edged up 0.1% month-over-month but was down 3.3% on a year-over-year basis.  The national average sale price rose 0.2% to $674,819 year-over-year, while new listings fell by 1.6% month-over-month.

Some economists are speculating that the latest stats may indicate the market has reached its cyclical low.

"Volumes and prices have likely bottomed in the hardest-hit markets, but the recovery is going to be flat with little in the pipeline to trigger a forceful rebound," says Big Bank economist Robert Kavcic.

Housing economist Robert Hogue cautions that “any acceleration in national activity will be gradual, held back by static interest rates, slowing population growth, and lingering economic uncertainty.”

Given the collapse of Canada – U.S. trade talks over the weekend, that uncertainty seems destined to persist.

- First National Financial LP