An early analysis of the July real estate numbers reveals a “mishmash of realities across Canada’s housing markets,” according to well-known housing economist Robert Hogue.  “Diverging trends reflect different states of confidence, affordability, pent-up demand, demographics, job markets and inventory,” Hogue says in his latest review of local markets.  Vancouver and B.C.’s lower mainland remain mired in a four-year slump.  Home resales dropped 8.0% from June to July.  Prices, as measured by the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Home Price Index, slipped by 6.2% in July compared to a 6.0% decline in June. Affordability and confidence are the big obstacles for B.C. buyers…

The latest statistics indicate the Canadian economy remains resilient in the face of continuing inflation pressures and on-going uncertainty.  But the Bank of Canada has its doubts.  The latest Gross Domestic Product reading shows the economy grew by 0.3% in May.  GDP growth for April was revised upward to 0.6%, while the flash forecast for June came in with a 0.2% boost.  That puts the economy on track for a 3.4% increase for the second quarter, which would be the best quarterly growth in more than three years.  Other indicators look good as well.  The inflation rate dipped 40 basis-points, to 2.8%,…

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s latest Housing Market Outlook says home affordability is improving… in some markets.  But the agency does not seem to view these uneven improvements as the big problem.  While CMHC touts better affordability it says “uncertainty, mortgage rates and slow income growth are keeping many buyers on the sidelines.”  CMHC’s summer outlook is forecasting falling prices, slowing sales and reduced construction through the rest of 2026.  The agency expects to see increasing housing market activity through 2027 and 2028 as Canada’s economic growth improves, but levels will remain below long-term averages.  CMHC says one of the most important “knock-on”…

The June report from the Canadian Real Estate Association has bolstered some hope that the long awaited revival in Canada’s housing market may be taking hold.  Modest Improvements  June home sales marked a small, but on-going, increase on a month-over-month basis, rising 0.5% compared to May.  That adds to a 5.5% jump in May and a 0.9% increase in April.  Year-over-year sales were up 0.9% over June 2025.  The national average home price edged up to $696,000, a 0.5% increase from a year earlier.  CREA’s preferred measure – it’s Composite Home Price Index – registered a 3.6% decline on a year-over-year basis.  However, the…

Another interest rate setting and another hold by the Bank of Canada.  For the sixth time in a row the central bank has decided to leave its trend-setting Policy Rate at 2.25%.  “Uncertainty” and the price of oil are the two key factors the Bank is watching but, in the main, it says Canada’s economy is looking stronger.  “Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement.  Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike.  There are still important risks and uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East and US trade policy,” the Bank said…

The latest readings of business and consumer sentiment by the Bank of Canada, show inflation is a top concern.    The Bank’s Business Outlook Survey and its Survey of Consumer Expectations, for the second quarter of 2026, show both groups expect inflation to top 3.0% over the next 12 months.  Concerns are centered on rising energy costs, fueled by the war in the Middle East, and on-going uncertainty about trade with the U.S.  Businesses point to higher fuel prices as a key driver of inflation while consumers tend to see American trade tariffs as the main culprit.  However, an increased number of…

To the surprise of no one the United States has decided it does not want to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).  The formal announcement came on July 1 – Canada Day – as per the deadline laid-out in the deal.  So far, the U.S. has not threatened to leave the agreement (neither have Canada nor Mexico), which would require six-months’ notice.    Now the trade agreement will be subject to annual reviews until it expires in 2036, consistent with the ‘management-by-mayhem’ style of the current American administration.  So, uncertainty continues and for those who build and those who buy homes it can…

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The decision makers at the Bank of Canada appear to have felt they had been backed into a corner when they were making the interest rate decision that was announced back on June 10.  The latest Summary of Deliberations shows the Governing Council debating an economic dilemma:  A weak Canadian economy that continues to operate below its potential, combined with high energy prices – caused by the war in Iran – that are pushing inflation above the Bank’s 2.0% target.  If the Bank hiked its Policy Rate to hold down inflation and oil prices suddenly dropped the higher rates would have further…

The annual spring real estate market waited until May to bloom this year but the blossoms are not quite as plentiful as last year.  The Canadian Real Estate Association reports home resales rose 5.5% compared to April, but were 5.1% below May of 2025.  “Like the weather in many parts of Canada this year, the spring market appears to have been delayed by a month or so, but the May numbers left little doubt that activity is now picking up,” said CREA Chair Garry Bhaura.   The most vigorous growth occurred in Ontario with an 8.8% gain over April’s numbers.  The Greater Toronto Area…

The Bank of Canada has held its trend-setting Policy Rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight setting.  The decision was not unexpected but there have been some rumblings about interest rate movement based on the latest GDP numbers, which put the country into a “technical” recession.  Many of those rumblings have been more political than economic.  Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says the current situation does not meet the bar for a recession.  “Based on the data we’ve seen to date, the economy is weak, but it is not clearly in recession,” Macklem said. “So far, we have not seen a significant,…

For the fifth time in a row, Canada’s central bank has opted to maintain its overnight policy interest rate at 2.25%. This hold-the-line stance was widely anticipated although recent economic data continues to fuel speculation about what comes next for rates and when.  To understand the Bank’s perspective on this key topic, we summarize its June 10th, 2026 observations and outlook below.  Canadian Economic Performance and Outlook  GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending “unexpectedly declined” Business investment remained weak Exports fell while imports…

For the fifth time in a row, Canada’s central bank has opted to maintain its overnight policy interest rate at 2.25%. This hold-the-line stance was widely anticipated although recent economic data continues to fuel speculation about what comes next for rates and when.  To understand the Bank’s perspective on this key topic, we summarize its June 10th, 2026 observations and outlook below.  Canadian Economic Performance and Outlook  GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending “unexpectedly declined” Business investment remained weak Exports fell while imports…

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The latest look at mortgage delinquencies in Canada is not pretty, but it deserves a detailed examination.  In its quarterly consumer credit trends report for the first three months of this year, Equifax says a growing number of Canadians are struggling to keep up their mortgage payments.  The credit monitoring firm says homeowner insolvencies in Q1 rose 11% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.  Delinquency balances also climbed significantly.  For homeowners with outstanding payments of 90 days or more the average balance of their delinquent mortgages climbed by 13.2% to $355,500 compared to a year earlier.  These homeowners also saw their delinquent non-mortgage balances…

Canadian mortgage consumers appear to have a more positive and, perhaps, more realistic attitude about their financial situation.  Optimism Improving  The latest annual survey of mortgage consumers by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation shows a marked improvement in confidence.  Respondents who said they have concerns about making their mortgage payments dropped to 39%, down from 53% in the 2025 survey.  Consumers who renewed mortgages made up the biggest segment in the survey (66%).  A significant portion of them (35%) said they are feeling increased financial pressure due to rising interest rates, with their mortgage payments increasing by an average of $375 a month.  Outside Help…

The May long weekend is behind us marking the unofficial start of summer in much of the country. As the days get longer and, hopefully, sunnier and warmer there are signs that the recreational property market could see increasing activity.  In a theme that echoes from the home-price spike during the pandemic, a significant segment of homebuyers are looking at recreational properties as an entry point into the broader housing market. A survey commissioned by Remax Canada suggests that 45% of potential buyers see recreational properties as a viable first step on the housing ladder.  The survey also indicates traditional, long-term thinking…

Canada’s spring real estate market is showing some green shoots but there are no predictions of a bumper crop. The Canadian Real Estate Association is taking some comfort from a modest 0.7% increase in home sales from March to April.  Nearly 427,000 properties changed hands, which suggests some stabilization, but activity is 4.2% lower than it was in April of 2025.  The national average home price rose 2.2% year-over-year and sits at a little more than $695,000.  However, CREA’s preferred measure of home prices, the MLS Home Price Index, edged down 0.1% from March and came in 4.0% below April of 2025.  Prices, which are…

As the 2026 federal census is being carried out across the country Statistics Canada has looked back through some past questionnaires and pulled out some enlightening information about Canada’s Millennials.  An intergenerational comparison shows 49.9% of millennials owned their home as of 2021, while 56.2% of Gen Xers did in 2006 and 55.9% of Baby Boomers in 1991. Millennial homeowners were less likely to live in a detached home than previous generations, and Millennials were nearly twice as likely to be living with their parents than Boomers were at the same age – 16.3% compared to 8.2% for the older generation.  For this study…