Residential Market Commentary - Mixed Bag for Real Estate

An early analysis of the July real estate numbers reveals a “mishmash of realities across Canada’s housing markets,” according to well-known housing economist Robert Hogue. 

“Diverging trends reflect different states of confidence, affordability, pent-up demand, demographics, job markets and inventory,” Hogue says in his latest review of local markets. 

Vancouver and B.C.’s lower mainland remain mired in a four-year slump.  Home resales dropped 8.0% from June to July.  Prices, as measured by the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Home Price Index, slipped by 6.2% in July compared to a 6.0% decline in June. Affordability and confidence are the big obstacles for B.C. buyers according to Hogue. 

In Calgary, sellers seem to be having the crisis of confidence.  New listings have dropped in five of the last six months.  Active listings are down 4.0% from a year ago.  Home prices are falling, but modestly, down 2.1% year-over-year. 

In Toronto sales gains continue to look more promising, rising for a fifth straight month in July.  Prices have staged a resurgence, as well, lately.  But a very soft condo market is holding back overall performance.  Home sales are still 30% below pre-pandemic levels and prices are 4.6% lower than a year ago. 

In Montreal record-high prices and deteriorating affordability appear to be squeezing potential buyers.  At the same time, slower population growth is stalling demand while there has been a surge in sellers coming to market.  It is a classic case of supply and demand that will likely trigger a decrease in prices.

- First National Financial LP